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US steel imports have been on the rise ahead of the Section 232 June 1 deadline.
The upward trend will likely reverse in the third quarter. First, the Trump administration will decide on extending Section 232 waivers to the EU and NAFTA partners.
Seth Rosenfeld, a Jeffries analyst wrote, “With steel prices already at high levels, this uncertainty-driven import decline is likely to continue to support prices in the near term.”
Will quotas be agreed on? “While tariffs would be a positive for US steel prices, trade war risks could temper excitement,” Rosenfeld said.
We will have to see whether the June 1 deadline is enforced. The tariffs will be enforced unless our allies agree on quotas. Regardless, the trend points toward decreasing US steel imports.
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